We were warned it would happen, and finally the prediction has been demonstrated as accurate. Although COVID-19 is still around, all restrictions have now been lifted. That means many others have returned to pre-pandemic life, and students are no longer holding off university applications. The result, according to Universities UK, is a “massive expansion” of UCAS applications this year.
Russell Group will be “especially hard”
Competition is expected to be much higher for applications to Russell Group institutions, especially those offering medical courses.
With universities currently subsidising students to the tune of £2,500 per student, and with an increase in the number of UCAS applicants, it’s likely they will be far more selective when A-level results come out in the middle of August. In short, grades coming in at slightly lower than the minimum required, are less likely to be waived than in previous years due to a combination of both financial and place limit constraints (accommodation and class size limits).
Why is this happening?
Due to cancelled exams in 2020 and 2021, and a more lenient marking method in 2022, everything is now technically back to normal as far as grading is concerned. As such, we’re also expecting grades to return to normal pre-pandemic levels.
Grades have been much harder to predict this year. The main reason is that these are the students who (mostly) finished their GCSEs during the pandemic and progressed through their A-levels with the pandemic still in progress. In some cases, assessment progress was mixed, meaning it’s hard to predict what any one student is going to achieve – any those who have applied to UCAS aren’t able to guarantee that they’ll make those grades.
More firm offers
However, it’s not all bad news. There is an increase in the number of students receiving firm offers from their first-choice universities, reflecting a confidence in the return-to-normal approach to grading.
This comes with a downside. With a higher number of applicants, more firm offers, and unpredictable grading, it means plenty of competition for everyone else.
A letter posted in July urged students not to waste time as results day approaches. Start researching alternatives now just in case the worst happens. Also waste no time in contacting universities in the day or two after getting your results.
If the worst does happen, there is always clearing. This is also likely to be competitive and challenging. It’s not all bad news, however. UCAS revealed that in 2022, over 21,000 students failed to get the grades they needed for their first and/or second choices. Around 60% of those eventually got places elsewhere.